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Canada, the G7, and the Denver Summit of the Eight:
Implications for Asia and Taiwan

by John Kirton

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Endnotes

1. The G7 embodies the four characteristics of a concert system. The first is concentrated power, embracing both an effective equality of relative capability among members (so no one dominates) and collective control of the international system as a whole. The second is constricted participation (which reduces veto points and transaction costs and increases transparency). The third is common purpose among its members, grounded in their common attributes and values as major industrial democratic powers. The fourth is political control, enabling leaders to transcend bureaucratic and domestic divisions and logjams, create broader coalitions and inject the ultimate political will. For a further elaboration of the G7 as a concert system, see John Kirton, "The Seven Power Summit as a New Security Institution," in David Dewitt et al., Building a New Global Order: Emerging Trends in International Security (Toronto: Oxford University Press, 1993), pp. 335-357.

2.As quoted in John Kirton, "The Diplomacy of Concert: Canada, the G7, and the Halifax Summit", Canadian Foreign Policy (Spring 1995). pp. 63-80. The Canadian emphasis was thus on solving the political "crisis of governability" rather than the economic problem of "stagflation," an understandable emphasis for an oil and commodity rich country which suffered relatively less than its G7 colleagues from the 1973 oil shock.

3. Canada's claim to leadership based on interest and expertise rests on the fact that there are one million Canadians of Ukrainian origin (in an overall population of 30 million), its interest as a civilian nuclear power in the Chernobyl reactors, and the reluctance of many to have Germany as the G7 member taking the lead on Ukrainian concerns.

4. Gordon Smith, "Canada and the Halifax Summit," in Fen Osler Hampson and Maureen Appel Molot, eds., Canada Among Nations 1996: Big Enough to be Heard, (Ottawa: Carleton University Press, 1996), pp. 83-94. See also Nicholas Bayne, "The G7 Summit and the Reform of Global Institutions", Government and Opposition 30 (Autumn 1995): 492-509.

5. John Kirton, "The G-7, the Halifax Summit, and International Financial System Reform," North American Outlook 5 (June 1995):43-66. These "New Arrangements to Borrow", created at Halifax, consist of a US $48 billion dollar reserve provided by 25 nations, available to stabilize currencies in the event of sudden distress posing a systemic threat. Taiwan does not participate. Prompted by the December 20, 1994 Mexican peso devaluation, the NAB shows the preventative capacity of the G7, although as of November 1997, the US had still not secured Congressional authority for its initial US$3.5 billion contribution.

6. As of 1996, exports had grown to constitute 38% of Canada's GDP, or almost half of the 80% of the economy accounted for by non-government spending.

7. Nicholas Bayne, "The G7 Summit and the Reform of Global Institutions," Government and Opposition 30 (Autumn 1995): 492-509.

8. For details of the issue see Sylvia Ostry, The Post-Cold War Trading System: Who's on First, (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1976).

9. C. Fred Bergsten and C. Randall Henning, Global Economic leadership and the Group of Seven, (Institute for International Economics: Washington, D.C., 1996).

10. For an analysis of Canadian-Japanese collaboration at the G7 see John Kirton,"The Industrialized Nations G7 Summit - Toward a Pacific Partnership," in Mitsuru Kurosawa and John Kirton, eds., The Triangle of Pacific States: Contemporary United States, Canada, Japan Relations, (Sairyusha Press, Tokyo, 1995), pp. 211-239, and John Kirton, "Towards Trans-Pacific Partnership: Canada and Japan in the G7, 1975-1995," in Michael Fry, John Kirton and Mitsuru Kurosawa, eds., The North Pacific Triangle: United States, Japan and Canada at Century's End, (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, forthcoming 1998). On G7 support for Korean assistance see John Kirton, "Le role du G7 dans le couple integration regionale/securite globale," Etudes Internationales 28 (Juin 1997): 255-270.

11. Divisions also allow the PRC to take advantage of the aversion of many in the region, including the Taiwanese, to Japan's World War Two record.

12. For background on Canada's approach to APEC in its year as host see John Kirton, "Canada and APEC", Asia Pacific Papers 3 (May 1997), Karen Minden, John Kirton and Steve Parker, eds., Linking the APEC Community: Canada's Objectives for APEC 1997 (Vancouver, Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, April 1997), and John Kirton, Karen Minden, Steve Parker, and Isobel Studer, eds., Canada and the Challenge of APEC: The Road to Vancouver, (Vancouver, The Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, the University of Toronto's Centre for International Studies, and the Asia Foundation of the United States, August 1997), and James M. Lambert, "Institution-Building in the Pacific - Canada in APEC,", Pacific Affairs 70 (Summer 1997).

13. An alternate set of figures indicates that in 1996 the G7 alone, exclusive of the other EU countries, accounted for US$ 112.06 billion or over 51% of Taiwan's US$218.31 billion in trade. Taiwan's trading partners in 1996 ranked as follows: US (47 US$ billion), Japan (41) Hong Kong (28), Germany 8.6, Singapore 7.4, South Korea 6.8, Malaysia 6.5, France 5.4, Netherlands 5.2, Australia 4.8, Britain 4.6, Thailand 4.5, Indonesia 3.8, Philippines 2.8, Canada 2.76, and Italy 2.6. The 1997 Asian currency crisis substantially raises the position of G7 members in the total and rankings.

14. Group of Thirty, The Summit Process and Collective Security: Future Responsibility Sharing, (Group of Thirty, Washington, D. C., 1991), and William Odum, "How to Create a True World Order: Establish a Concert of Great Powers," Orbis 39, (Spring 1995): 155-172.

15. The decision to hold the brief economic session "at seven" was decided only late in the American preparatory process, and came at the insistence of US Treasury Secretary Rubin.

16. America's capability-driven self confidence was evident in Clinton's pre-Summit public address extolling the virtues of the American model, in his concern with highlighting a portrait of Russian-American equality, and in the final night's preparation of the concluding communiqué, conducted not collectively among the nine sherpas but by the US sherpa, Dan Tarullo, consulting individually with interested parties on problematic passages. There was an objective foundation for such an American self- confidence. In 1996 the US had been second to Japan in GDP growth among the G7 (with Canada fourth) whereas in 1997, IMF estimates placed the US and Canada tied for first (with Japan last). The Japanese yen had also depreciated by 50% against the US dollar in the preceeding two years.

17. The list included Zbigniev Brzezinski in a New York Times article at the time of the Lyon Summit, W. R. Smyser, "Goodbye, G7," Washington Quarterly (Winter 1993): 15-28, and the Commission on Global Governance, Our Global Neighbourhood, (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995).

18. There were media reports that the Japanese, angry that the US had invited Yeltsin as a virtually full participant, were asking why China was not invited. Steven Erlanger, "Russia Sits with Big 8, Party Crasher No More," New York Times, Sunday June 22, 1997.

19. For background on Canada's approach see B. Michael Frolic, "Re-engaging China: Striking a Balance between Trade and Human Rights," in Fen Hampson, Maureen Molot and Martin Rudner, eds., Asia-Pacific Face-Off: Canada Among Nations 1997, (Ottawa: Carelton University Press, 1997), pp. 323-348.

20. The magnitude had led Canada's Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade to engage in contingency planning for a mass evacuation.

21. As Canada felt it had secured such an assurance from the PRC, it decided following Denver to send Axworthy to the installation ceremony.

22. For background see "Barring Entry? China and the WTO," Current History 1997, 274-7.

23.On broader trade issues Canada accepted the American strategy of using the Denver Summit, beginning with President Clinton's pre-summit address in Denver to pave the way for the grant of fast track authority, with collective action, such as moving on Sir Leon Brittan's proposal for a "Millenium Round," coming at a later stage.

24. The Honourable Paul Martin, "Canada and the G7," Notes for Remarks by the Honourable Paul Martin, Minister of Finance to the University of Toronto G7 Research Group, Toronto, Ontario. November 12, 1997.

25. For background see John Stackhouse, "Rich and poor square off over freer capital markets," Globe and Mail, September 26, 1997, "IMF members broaden currency reserves," Globe and Mail, September 22, 1997 and "IMF chief envisions truly global future," Globe and Mail, September 19, 1997.

26. There were some Canada-US differences on the broader issue of responding to financial crisis as Canada did not support US Treasury Secretary Rubin's proposal that private bond rating agencies rather than the IMF be assigned the task of evaluating Asian economies' performance.

27. Contrast with the projection of a G5 (US, Germany, Japan, Russia, China), by David Crane, "Asia crisis brings global powershift," Toronto Star, November 30, 1997, p.D2.

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