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2004 Sea Island Final Compliance Results

Professor John Kirton, Dr. Ella Kokotsis, Anthony Prakash Navaneelan
and the University of Toronto G8 Research Group

July 1, 2005

The 2004 Sea Island Final Compliance Report, which reviews progress made on selected commitments set out at the 2004 Sea Island Summit, is now available.

Download the full 2004 Sea Island Final Compliance Report (PDF, 205 pages)
• Introduction [PDF]
• Broader Middle East and North Africa Initiative: Forum for the Future / Democracy Assistance Dialogue [PDF]
• Broader Middle East and North Africa Initiative: Iraqi Elections Support [PDF]
• World Economy [PDF]
• Trade: WTO Doha Development Agenda [PDF]
• Trade: Technical Assistance [PDF]
• Energy: Conservation and Renewables [PDF]
• Environment [PDF]
• Nonproliferation: Weapons of Mass Destruction [PDF]
• Terrorist Financing: Counter-Terrorism Action Group – Finance [PDF]
• Transnational Crime, Transparency and Corruption [PDF]
• Transport Security [PDF]
• Debt Sustainability for the Poorest [PDF]
• Financing Development: Private Entrepreneurship [PDF]
• Infectious Diseases: HIV/AIDS [PDF]
• Infectious Diseases: Polio [PDF]
• Peace Support Operations in Africa [PDF]
• Famine and Food Security in Africa [PDF]
• Regional Security: Darfur [PDF]
• Appendix A: Priority Commitments [PDF]
• Appendix B: Bibliography [PDF]

Preface

Each year since 1996, the G8 Research Group has produced a compliance report on the progress made by the G8 member countries in meeting the commitments issued at each leaders’ summit. Since 2002, the group has published an interim report, timed to assess progress at the transition between one country’s year as host and the next, and then a final report issued just before the leaders meet at their annual summit. These reports, which monitor each country’s efforts on a carefully chosen selection of the many commitments announced at the end of each summit, are offered to the general public and to policy makers, academics, civil society, the media and interested citizens around the world in an effort to make the work of the G8 more transparent and accessible, and to provide scientific data to enable meaningful analysis of this unique and informal institution. The full compliance report is available at the G8 Information Centre at <www.g8.utoronto.ca>.

The G8 Research Group is an independent organization based at the University of Toronto. Founded in 1987, it is an international network of scholars, professionals and students interested in the activities of the G8. The group oversees the G8 Information Centre, which publishes, free of charge, analysis and research on the G8 as well as makes available official documents issued by the G8.

The work of the G8 Research Group would not be possible without the dedication of many people around the world. In particular, this report is the product of a team of energetic and hard-working analysts directed by Dr. Ella Kokotsis, Director of Analytical Research, and Anthony Prakash Navaneelan.

The G8 Research Group encourages responses to this report. Any comments or questions should be directed to <g8@utoronto.ca>. Indeed, we are grateful to the many individuals from many communities who responded to our invitation to comment on an earlier draft of this report. Responsibility for its contents lies exclusively with the authors and analysts of the G8 Research Group.

John Kirton
Director
G8 Research Group
Toronto, Canada

Introduction

The final compliance results reveal that from the period following the 2004 Sea Island Summit until June 2005, G8 members (plus the EU) complied with their priority commitments across the 18 major priority commitments 55% of the time (see Table A). This average is based on a scale whereby 100% equals perfect compliance and —100% means that the member governments are either non-compliant or are, in fact, doing the opposite of what they committed to.

The Overall Final Compliance Score

This overall final compliance score of 55% for the Sea Island Summit indicates a compliance increase of 15% since the release of the interim report in February 2005. This score also falls on the high end of compliance historically, as only post-Okinawa in 2000 were the G8 leaders able to achieve higher overall compliance results than at Sea Island (see Table C).

Compliance by Country

Similar to previous compliance studies, the highest complying member across the 18 priority commitments is Canada at 72%. However, joining the ranks of compliance leaders, and tied for first place with Canada, are the US and the EU. In all three cases, significant compliance increases have taken place since the interim scores where Canada was at 50%, followed by the US and EU, each at 44%. The United Kingdom, next in the hosting rotation, places a close second, with a score of 67%, confirming trends found in earlier compliance reports suggesting that countries next in the hosting rotation are consistently among the highest to comply with commitments reached the year before. Tied with the UK is also Germany, which increased its compliance score by 17% from the time of the interim study. France follows next with a compliance score of 50%, followed by Italy at 44%, Japan at 39% and finally Russia at 6%. None of the G8 members scored overall compliance results in the negative range.

The Compliance Gap by Country

Although compliance scores during the interim and final compliance reports vary considerably by country, this study finds that the compliance gap between member states for Sea Island increases significantly for the final report. During the interim period, the compliance gap between the lowest and highest complying G8 countries was 50%; a number which increases to 66% for the final report (72% vs. 6%). This could suggest that those countries on the lower end of the compliance performance spectrum tend to stay within their earlier range as the year progresses, whereas those countries on the higher end of the performance spectrum from the outset tend to produce even better compliance results as time lapses and the next summit approaches.

Compliance by Issue Area

Similar to the interim scores, the final compliance results also indicate that compliance during this period varied considerably by issue area. Commitments focused on democracy assistance through the Broader Middle East and North Africa (BMENA) initiative as well as those on debt relief for the heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) and the environment score perfect compliance results across all G8 countries and the EU. Compliance scores are also high in the area of regional security issues as they relate to Darfur and support for the Iraqi elections (through the BMNEA), both scoring 89%. Following closely behind are commitments relating to trade and the Doha round at 88%. Energy commitments as well as those relating to weapons of mass destruction also rank high in overall terms with compliance scores of 78%. Commitments relating to peace building and famine/food security in Africa each score 67%, followed by infectious diseases (HIV/AIDS) and trade (as it relates to technical assistance) each at 56%. Infectious diseases (Polio), commitments on the world economy, and transport security score below the overall average at 44%, 22 % and 11% respectively. Transnational crime is the only commitment with a score of "0" – or a work in progress – across all G8 countries. Similarly, finance development is the only commitment of the 18 assessed to score within the negative range across all G8 countries with a score of -1.0, indicating that the G8 and the EU have not taken any concrete measures to fulfill their priority commitments in this particular issue area in the post-Sea Island period.

These findings reveal some striking differences with the compliance results from Evian and Kananaskis where political security issues (primarily terrorism) yielded the highest compliance scores by the G8 across both years. By contrast, issues post-Sea Island around terrorist financing, transnational crime and transport security have fallen well below the overall average on the compliance performance spectrum. The most striking development, however, has been on the debt relief and trade fronts which have shifted from the middle range in previous years to secure top marks post—Sea Island. This trend sets an interesting tone for PM Tony Blair as he elevates issues around African development and the environment to the apex of the leaders’ agenda when they meet at Gleneagles, Scotland from July 6-8, 2005.

Interim and Final Compliance Scores Compared

Given that the final results for Sea Island are in, an overall assessment of year-over-year compliance scores is now possible. The 2004 score of 55% for Sea Island compares very favourably with other years, scoring higher than any other summit in the post-Lyon period (1996) with the exception of Okinawa (2000), where the leaders secured a compliance score of 80% (see Table C).

Special Considerations

In evaluating the results of this report, the following considerations should be kept in mind.

• Compliance has been assessed against a selected set of priority commitments, rather than all commitments the last summit produced. The priority commitments selected were not randomly chosen but identified according to a disciplined and systematic process intended to produce a representative subset of the total according to such dimensions as issue areas, ambition, specified time for completion, instruments used and, more generally, the degree of precision, obligation and delegation of each. The aim is to provide a comprehensive portrait of the compliance performance of the summit as a whole. As such, the individual commitments selected cannot in all cases claim to be the most important ones in their appropriate issue area, nor do they necessarily represent that issue area lodged.
  
  
• In addition to the specific commitments assessed here, summits have value in establishing new principles in normative directions, in creating and highlighting issue areas and agenda items, and in altering the publicly allowable discourse used. Furthermore, some of the most important decisions reached and consensus forged at summits may be done entirely in private and not encoded in the public communiqué record.
  
  
• Some commitments inherently take longer to be complied with than the time available between one summit and the next.
  
  
• In some cases, it may be wise not to comply with a summit commitment, if global conditions have dramatically changed since the commitment was made or if new knowledge has become available about how a particular problem can best be solved.
  
  
• As each of the member countries has its own constitutional, legal and institutional processes for undertaking action at the national level, each is free to act in particular cases on a distinctive national time scale. Of particular importance here is the annual cycle for the creation of budgets, legislative approval and the appropriation of funds.
  
  
• Commitments encoded in the G8 communiqué may also be encoded precisely or partially in communiqués from other international forums, the decisions of other international organizations, or even national statements such as the State of the Union Address in the U.S., the Queen’s Speech in the UK and the Speech from the Throne in Canada. Without detailed process-tracing, it cannot be assumed that compliant behaviour on the part of countries is fully caused by the single fact of a previous G8 commitment.
  
  
• Compliance here is assessed against the precise, particular commitments made by the G8, rather than what some might regard as necessary or appropriate action to solve the problem being addressed.
  
  
• With compliance assessed on a three-point scale, judgements inevitably arise about whether particular actions warrant the specific numerical value assigned. As individual members can sometimes take different actions to comply with the same commitment, no standardized cross-national evaluative criterion can always be used. Comments regarding the judgements in each case, detailed in the extensive accompanying notes, are welcome (see below).
  
  
• Because the evaluative scale used in this compliance report runs from –100 percent to +100 percent, it should assumed that any score in the positive range represents at least some compliance with the specific commitments made by the G8. It is not known if commitments in other international forums or at the national level on occasions such as the State of the Union Address, Queen’s Speech or Speech from the Throne, etc., are complied with to a greater or lesser degree than the commitments made by the G8.
  
  
• It may be that commitments containing high degrees of precision, obligation and delegation, with short specified timetables for implementation, may induce governments to act simply to meet the specified commitment rather than in ways best designed to address core and underlying problems over a longer term.
  
  
• In some cases, full compliance by all members of the G8 with a commitment is contingent on co-operative behaviour on the part of other actors.
  
  
• Although G8 Reserach Group analysts have made an exceptional effort to seek relevant information on Russia, credible commentary on the preliminary draft of this report suggests that information herein about the compliance-related activity of the Russian Federation remains incomplete. The greater such incompleteness, the lower the Russia's scores would likely be as a result.

Further Research and Reports

The information contained within this report provides G8 member countries and other stakeholders with an indication of their compliance results in the post-Sea Island period. As with previous compliance reports, this report has been produced as an invitation for others to provide additional or more complete information on country compliance with the 2004 Sea Island commitments. As always, comments are welcomed and would be considered as part of an analytical reassessment. Please send your feedback to <g8@utoronto.ca>.

Table A: 2004 Sea Island Final Compliance Scores

Note: The average score by issue area is the average of all countries’ compliance scores for that issue. The average score by country is the average of all issue area compliance scores for a given country. The overall compliance average is an average of the overall issue average and overall country average. Where information on a country’s compliance score for a given issue area was not available, "N/A" appears in the respective column and no compliance score is awarded. Countries were excluded from the averages if "N/A" appears in the respective column.

Table B: 2004 Sea Island Interim Compliance Scores

Note: The average score by issue area is the average of all countries’ compliance scores for that issue. The average score by country is the average of all issue area compliance scores for a given country. The overall compliance average is an average of the overall issue average and overall country average. Where information on a country’s compliance score for a given issue area was not available, "N/A" appears in the respective column and no compliance score is awarded. Countries were excluded from the averages if "N/A" appears in the respective column.

Table C: G8 Compliance Assessments by Country, 1996-2005^a

1. Broader Middle East and North Africa: Democracy Assistance Dialogue

"Establish with willing partners in the region a Democracy Assistance Dialogue that will, under the auspices if the Forum for the Future, bring together in a collaborative and transparent environment willing governments, civil society groups and other organizations from the G8, EU and others, and countries in the region to:

• Coordinate and share information and lessons learned on democracy programs in the region, taking into account the importance of local ownership and each country’s particular circumstances;
  
  
• Work to enhance existing democracy programs or initiate new programs;
  
  
• Provide opportunities for participants to develop joint activities, including twinning projects;
  
  
• Promote and strengthen democratic institutions and processes, as well as capacity-building;
  
  
• Foster exchanges with civil society groups and other organizations working on programs in the region."

G8 Plan of Support for Reform

2. Broader Middle East and North Africa: Iraqi Elections

"We pledge to provide support and assistance for the electoral process leading to national elections for the Transitional National Authority [of Iraq] no later than January 31, 2005."

Partnership for Progress and a Common Future
with the Region of the Broader Middle East and North Africa

3. World Economy

"We agreed it was important to take advantage of the strong global economic environment to implement further reforms to accelerate growth in our countries."

G8 Sea Island Summit Chair’s Summary

4. Trade: Doha Development Agenda

"The progressive integration by developing countries of trade into their development policies and poverty reduction strategies is crucial for their integration in the global economy, and will increase the benefits they derive from the multilateral trading system. We call on developing countries to further increase their efforts in this regard, and pledge to provide strong support in the form of technical assistance to build their trading."

G8 Leaders Statement on Trade

5. Trade: Technical Assistance

"We call on developing countries to further increase their efforts in this regard, and pledge to provide strong support in the form of technical assistance to build their trading."

G8 Leaders Statement on Trade

6. Energy

"We recognized the need for balanced energy policies, which increase energy supplies and encourage more efficient energy use and conservation, including through new technologies."

G8 Sea Island Summit Chair’s Summary

7. Environment: Sustainable Development

"Held First and Second Earth Observation Summits (EOS) and adopted a Framework document on a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). Planning to adopt a final 10-year strategic implementation plan on GEOSS at Third EOS in 2005 and working to identify the international mechanism to provide coordination and oversight for GEOSS."

Science and Technology for Sustainable Development:
"3r" Action Plan and Progress on Implementation

8. Nonproliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction

"…for the intervening year [between the Sea Island and Gleneagles Summits], we agree that it would be prudent not to inaugurate new initiatives involving transfer of enrichment and reprocessing equipment and technologies to additional states. We call on all states to adopt this strategy with prudence."

G8 Action Plan for Nonproliferation

9. Terrorism: Counter-Terrorism Action Group – Finance

"We will develop a diplomatic strategy to urge speedy consideration of ratification of the TOC [Transnational Organized Crime] Convention and coordinate with others, including donors to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, to provide technical assistance to promote implementation of the Convention."

Fighting Corruption and Improving Transparency

10. Transnational Crime, Transparency and Corruption

"We support our [Home Affairs and Justice] Ministers’ determination to detect, recover and return these illicitly acquired assets, including by:

• establishing G8 accelerated response teams;
• enhancing G8 asset recovery case coordination; and
• holding G8 asset recovery workshops.

To meet these goals, we will ensure that:

• each of our countries has rules in place by Summer 2005, where possible, to require due diligence for "politically exposed persons" accounts;
• each of our countries has rules in place, preferably by 12/31/04, to require wire transfer originator information;
• we create G8 best practices for modalities of disposition and return; and
• we explore effective measures to recover assets in corruption cases.

Fighting Corruption and Improving Transparency

11. Debt Relief: Highly Indebted Poor Countries Initiative

"We are committed to fully implementing the HIPC initiative and to supporting debt sustainability in the poorest countries through debt relief and grant financing. To that end, we have asked our finance ministers to:

• Work with other donors and the other international financial institutions to extend the sunset date of the HIPC initiative until December 31, 2006 and to provide the necessary financing for the completion of the initiative, including topping up where appropriate.
• Consider further measures that can help the poorest countries further address the sustainability of their debt."

Debt Sustainability for the Poorest

12. Transport Security

"Accelerate development of international standards for the interoperability of government-issued smart chip passports and other government-issued identity documents. We will for implementation by the 2005 Summit."

G8 Secure and Facilitated International Travel Initiative

13. Finance Development: Entrepreneurship, Official Development Assistance and the International Finance Facility

"In anticipation of the UN-designated "international year of micro-credit" in 2005, G8 countries will work with the World Bank-based Consultative Group to Assist the Poor (CGAP) to launch a global market-based microfinance initiative."

G8 Action Plan: Applying the Power of Entrepreneurship to the Eradication of Poverty

14. Infectious Diseases: HIV/AIDS

"We believe the time is right for the major scientific and other stakeholders — both public and private sector, in developed and developing countries – to come together in a more organized fashion....We endorse this concept and call for the establishment of a Global HIV Vaccine Enterprise."

G8 Action to Endorse and Establish a Global HIV Vaccine Enterprise

15. Infectious Diseases: Polio

"We are pleased that the financing gap for 2004 has now been closed through our efforts and those of others. We are determined to close the 2005 financing gap by the 2005 G8 Summit through the contributions of the G8 and other public and private donors."

G8 Commitment to Help Stop Polio Forever

16. Peace Support Operations in Africa

"Therefore, we commit, consistent with our national laws, to: ... Work with interested parties, before the next Summit, to develop a transportation and logistics support arrangement, which will help provide countries with transportation to deploy to peace support operations and logistics support to sustain units in the field. This kind of arrangement, which will take into account existing efforts, should address a key capabilities gap that often prevents timely intervention in crises."

G8 Action Plan: Expanding Global Capability for Peace Support Operations

17. Famine and Food Security in Africa

"Although harvests improved in 2003-04, substantial emergency assistance will still be required for Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan, in part because of political instability and displacement of populations due to conflicts…Working with other donors, we will do our part to ensure that emergency needs, including food, are met."

Ending the Cycle of Famine in the Horne of Africa, Raising Agricultural Productivity
and Promoting Rural Development in Food Insecure Countries

18. Regional Security: Sudan

"We pledge our countries’ assistance in ending the conflicts in Sudan and in providing humanitarian aid to those in need."

G8 Statement on Sudan

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