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Carney’s Canada Is a Principal Power in a G7-Centred World
John Kirton, G7 Research Group
January 22, 2026
Does Canadian prime minister Mark Carney see Canada not as a mere liberal internationalist middle power but rather as an emerging or even an established principal power in the world, as the theory of complex neo-realism suggests?
In his widely reported and acclaimed speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 20, 2026, Carney repeatedly asserted that Canada’s position was that of a “middle power,” sharing with likeminded countries the common values of human rights.
But a careful, comprehensive analysis of all he said in his speech, and of his behaviour as Canada’s leader since the spring of 2025, suggests that he actually sees Canada as a principal power in today’s rapidly changing world.
In 1983 David Dewitt and I created the complex neo-realist theory of foreign policy, applied it to Canada, and concluded that it showed that Canada was then emerging as a principal power in changing world, due to the defeat of the United States in its then longest war, in Vietnam, and its Republican president’s domestic assault on democracy in the Watergate affair (Dewitt and Kirton 1983). Ten years ago, in 2006, I argued that Canada had become an established principal power in a changing world, due to the decline of the United States as a system-dominant power and the diffusion of its released relative capabilities to a several rising principal powers around the globe (Kirton 2006).
Carney’s Davos speech suggests he agrees, as his assertions and actions largely conform to the predictions of the complex neo-realist theory.
On the theory's first and central dimension of rank, or relative capability, Carney asserted that the “brutal reality” is a “rupture in world order,” creating a world where “American hegemony” and its benefit are gone, “great power rivalry” has come, and “great-power geopolitics is unconstrained.”
Canada “was amongst the first to hear the wake-up call, leading us to fundamentally shift our strategic posture” toward “values-based realism.”
“We are no longer relying on just the strength of our values. But also on the value of our strength. We are building that strength at home.”
He declared that Canada is an “energy superpower” in a world where energy is central and crisis causing. It also was before – in 1973, 1979, and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and now with the attacks on a nuclear weapons acquiring Iran.
The hard facts of objective capability bear this out in a bigger, broader way. Canada is now number one in the world in the critical capabilities of coastlines, freshwater, wetlands, trees, boreal forests, potash, uranium and canola. And if a country is number one in the world, by definition, a middle power it cannot be, for there is no one above for it to be in the middle of in the international status hierarchy. In its soft power brought by its performance, as Carney wisely added, Canada is arguably number one globally in being loved, friendliness, battery supply chains, education, safety for travellers, crime, religious freedom, health care and economic optimism.
As Carney noted: “We have the most educated population in the world. Our pension funds are amongst the world’s largest and most sophisticated investors. We have capital, talent and a government with the immense fiscal capacity to act decisively. And we have the values to which many others aspire.”
These claims largely coincide with the complex neo-realism predictions of a countries’ rank: its growth and rise, first-tier status, asserted and acknowledged status, its distinctive periphery, and “sufficient military forces to deter, balance and defend against external threats.”
Carney said that in this changing world, countries conclude that they “must develop greater strategic autonomy: in energy, food, critical minerals, in finance and supply chains.”
And Canada is “engaging broadly, strategically, with open eyes,” he said. “Canada is calibrating our relationships, so their depth reflects our values. We are prioritising broad engagements to maximise our influence.”
This corresponds well to the complex neo-realism predications on the dimension of activity – global involvement, interest-based involvement, and autonomous bilateral involvement.
In the face of US president Donald Trump’s threat to acquire Greenland by military force, Carney stated: “On Arctic sovereignty, we stand firmly with Greenland and Denmark and fully support their unique right to determine Greenland’s future.”
Carney correctly and logically stated: “Allies will diversify to hedge against uncertainty.”
“Diversification internationally is not just economic prudence. It is the material foundation for honest foreign policy … We are rapidly diversifying abroad. We have agreed a comprehensive strategic partnership with the European Union, including joining SAFE, Europe’s defence procurement arrangements. We have signed twelve other trade and security deals on four continents in the last six months. In the past few days, we have concluded new strategic partnerships with China and Qatar. We are negotiating free trade pacts with India, ASEAN [Association of Southeast Asian Nations], Thailand, Philippines, Mercosur.”
This corresponds very well with the complex neo-realist predictions on association: unilateralism, divergence and diversification.
On the defining dimension of a county’s approach to world order, Carney correctly stated: “The multilateral institutions on which middle powers relied – the WTO [World Trade Organization], the UN, The COP [Conference of the Parties] – the architecture of collective problem solving – are greatly diminished.”
He assed: “other countries … like Canada … have the power to build a new order that embodies our values, like respect for human rights, sustainable development, solidarity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of states.” Here he highlighted Canada’s distinctive national value of environmentalism and its national interests of survival, self-determination and territory.
More specifically, he noted, “on critical minerals, we are forming buyer’s clubs anchored in the G7 so that the world can diversify away from concentrated supply. On AI, we are cooperating with like-minded democracies to ensure we will not ultimately be forced to chose between hegemons and hyperscalers.” He also said “on plurilateral trade, we are championing efforts to build a bridge between the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the European Union.”
More broadly, Carney said: “To help solve global problems, we are pursuing variable geometry – different coalitions for different issues, based on values and interests. On Ukraine, we are a core member of the Coalition of the Willing and one of the largest per-capita contributors to its defence and security.”
This view coincides well with the complex neo-realist predictions on the defining dimension of a county’s approach to world order: revision, concert and modification/replacement.
Altogether, the evidence shows that Carney’s Canada is emerging as, and is about to again become, an established principal power in now newly ruptured world.
Carney, Mark (2026). “Principled and Pragmatic: Canada’s Path.” Address to the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, Davos, Switzerland, January 20. Office of the Prime Minister of Canada. https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/speeches/2026/01/20/principled-and-pragmatic-canadas-path-prime-minister-carney-addresses.
Dewitt, David and John Kirton (1983), Canada as a Principal Power: A Study in Foreign Policy and International Relations. (John Wiley & Sons).
Kirton, John (2006), Canadian Foreign Policy in a Changing World (Nelson Thomson).
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