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Analytical Studies > Analysis on the 2024 Apulia Summit
G7 Summits > 2024 Apulia Summit

Connecting G7 Development Performance from Apulia 2024 with Kananaskis 2025

John Kirton, Director, G7 Research Group
October 31, 2024
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Presentation prepared for the conference on “Reflections on the Deliverables from the G7 Development Ministerial Meeting on October 24–25, 2024,” sponsored by the Instituto Affari Internationali, Rome, Italy, October 31, 2024. I gratefully acknowledge the contribution of Brittaney Warren, Sonya Dobson and the analysts of the G7 Research Group

What Italy’s G7 Did for Development This Year

It’s a great pleasure for me, as a Canadian, to participate in this important seminar on Italy’s G7 development performance, with a focus on the Apulia Summit and the recent Pescara development ministers’ meeting.

For Canada created the development ministers’ forum, when it hosted the summit in 2002.

Moreover, Canada is one of the few G7 members since then to hold a development ministers’ meeting in every year it chaired the G7.[1]

And these meetings matter. They help members comply with the summit commitments their leaders make.

And rapidly converting their paper promises into action is what the G7 and the world really need.[2]

Italy’s Performance in 2024

Italy’s G7 development performance is now soaring and strong, but just starting to connect to the key issues of climate change, energy, the environment, and digital artificial intelligence (AI) technology, especially for Africa.

Apulia, June 13–15

Italy’s Apulia Summit’s produced a strong performance. It was significant on Africa and energy, substantial on climate change, the environment and artificial intelligence, and solid on development.

It made 469 commitments, the third highest in the 50 summits since the first summit in 1975 (see Appendix A and Appendix B).

Regional security led with 65 commitments, followed by energy with 52.[4] Development ranked fourth with 44. Digital technology had 33, gender equality 26, the environment 24 and climate change 12.[4]

Africa, as a cross-cutting subject, appeared in 57 or 12% of the commitments. This was the second highest ever, exceeded only by Canada’s 87 Africa commitments, for 47% of the total, at its first Kananaskis Summit in 2002 (see Appendix C)

Apulia’s commitments, and its development-related ones, will probably be rapidly complied with by G7 members to a substantial degree.

To be sure, Italy historically has had the lowest compliance with the G7 summits’ 7,223 commitments, and with its 761 development ones, before 2024.[5]

But Italy’s compliance has risen recently, to a perfect 100%, with the development commitments from 2021 to 2023.

Moreover, my G7 Research Group colleague, Jessica Rapson from Oxford University, using her artificial intelligence–enhanced compliance predictor, forecasts that Apulia’s commitments will have full compliance of 73%. Those on the digital economy will have 87%, on energy and the environment 82%, and on climate change 73%. Development will have 69% but gender equality only 54%.

Most recently, our compliance report for the G20’s New Delhi Summit in 2023 shows 81% compliance after six months.[6] Italy’s compliance is an above-average 89%; Canada’s is too.

Pescara, October 22-24

A week ago, at Pescara, G7 development ministers made 152 commitments[7] (see Appendix D). They were led by those on health with 40, and on food and agriculture with 37. Then came development itself with 22, followed by climate change with 12 and gender equality with seven. But energy and digital technology had only four each.

Africa appeared in 25, or 16% of the 152 commitments, in nine subject categories.[8] But Africa was absent in the commitments on the environment, digital technology, and regional security.

Washington DC, October 25

Most recently, in Washington DC on October 25, G7 finance ministers and central bank governors made 68 commitments.[9] [10]

Those on development led with 16. They were followed by those on financial regulation with 14, regional security nine, and climate change and health eight each. But artificial intelligence had only two.[11]

Africa appeared in six or nine percent of the commitments, on three subjects – development with three, health with two and climate change with one.[12]

But the synergistic links among these key subjects were very slight.

This evidence shows that Italy’s G7 development performance, while now soaring and strong, is just starting to be connected to the key issues of climate change, energy, the environment, and digital AI technology, especially for Africa.

What Canada’s G7 Will Do for Development in 2025

Canada’s G7 summit in 2025 will do a great deal for development, in a bigger, broader, newer way.

Just how much and how depends, of course, on who the Canadian prime minister and the US president will be, and on what shocks arise to spur or sidetrack action on development, when the Kananaskis Summit takes place in mid-June.[13]

But the available evidence suggests that its development performance will be significant. Taking centre stage will not be the familiar commitments on more official development assistance and debt relief, despite the great need for them.

Rather, they will be those on the newer Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) subjects of climate change, clean energy, digital AI technology, and gender equality.

Here performance will be boosted by the firm foundation Italy has laid, while Canada fills the gaps that Italy has left.

Past G7 Summit Commitments Due in 2025

Several reasons suggest this significant performance.

First, Canada has long been a leader in making the G7 summit’s now 805 development commitments, and in complying with them at an above-average 77%.[14]

Second, at most of the six summits Canada has hosted, the number of commitments on development ranked first or second among all those produced.

They came first at Kananaskis in 2002. Liberal Party prime minister Jean Chrétien, as host, devoted the summit’s full final day to a session on Africa, co-designed and delivered by the four African leaders invited as equal partners, and covering all subjects they wanted to address.[15] There they started the G7’s work on gender equality, then labelled “women in development.” Of the 481 Africa commitments G7 summits have now made, Kananaskis produced 87 for 18% of them and Apulia produced 58 for 12%.[16]

At Charlevoix in 2018, with Liberal Party prime minister Justin Trudeau in the chair and US Republican president Donald Trump there, commitments on development ranked third. The environment came first, gender equality second, and digital-AI fourth. There Canada’s G7 invented the G7 and global governance of AI, making the first commitments on it and 23 in all, for 75% of all the G7 summits made through to 2023.

But none linked to development. And that year, Canada mounted no digital technology ministerial that year, even though Italy had the year before.[17]

Third, Canada in 2025 will inherit the 34 G7 summit commitments made since 2016 that are due for delivery in 2025, but which have not been delivered yet.

The only one on development, from Apulia, is familiar, committing leaders “to work toward a successful replenishment of the African Development Fund next year.”[18]

But the environment has 10 times as many, climate change has nine, energy four, and digital technology and gender equality two each.[19]

Canada’s Public Priorities for 2025

Fourth, these inherited subjects correspond well with Canada’s publicly presented priorities for Kananaskis so far.

At Apulia, Canada identified five:

1. “economies that benefit everyone”
2. “fighting climate change”
3. “managing rapidly evolving technologies”
4. clean energy; and
5. foreign election interference.[20]

And for the G20 Rio Summit on November 18–19, Trudeau’s priorities are:

1. democracy
2. climate change with clean energy
3. the SDGs
4. gender equality
5. digital technology; and
6. security (see Appendix E).[21]

The Consensus for 2025

Putting the past and present together shows Kananaskis in 2025 will put climate change first, energy second[22], digital AI technology third[23], and gender equality too, relating them to development and Africa in a bigger, broader, more mainstreamed synergistic way.[24]

Conclusion

Some of these priorities will be boosted by Italy’s G7 performance in 2024.[25]

But in 2025, to close the gaps and produce a significant development performance in a bigger, broader, newer way, Canada should do four things.

First, mount more development ministers’ meetings, combining some with ministers for climate change, energy and the environment.[26]

Second, link development and digital AI technology, to prevent a new global digital divide.[27]

Third, mainstream Africa throughout almost all subjects, including democracy, security, and financial regulation.

Fourth, to improve compliance with these key commitments, G7 leaders should

1. mount many ministerial meetings on these subjects, especially before the summit,
2. create working groups on them, and
3. refer to G7 bodies in the commitments they make (see Appendix F).

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Notes

↩ [1] Canada did so, in bipartisan fashion, under the Liberal governments of Jean Chrétien in 2002 and Justin Trudeau in 2018 and the Conservative government of Stephen Harper in 2010. The most frequent hosts of G7 development ministers’ meetings have been Canada (in 2002, 2010 and 2018), Germany (in 2007, 2015 and 2023) and the United Kingdom (in 2005, and twice in 2021) with three each, followed by Italy (in 2009 and 2024) and France with two each, Japan with one and the United States with none.

↩ [2] Moreover, Canada and Italy shared the fate of being excluded from the G5 finance ministers’ forum until 1985 and were the global commentariat’s two favourite candidates to exclude from the G7 summit to make room for seemingly more powerful countries to join.

↩ [3] Trade ranked third with 51 commitments.

↩ [4] Gender equality ranked seventh, with 26 commitments. AI had 25 of the 33 digital technology commitments. However only three of Apulia’s 25 AI commitments were development-related. They were: G7 2024-258 “We will also work, including with developing countries and emerging economies, towards closing digital divides, including the gender digital divide, and achieving digital inclusion” (AI) (development-related) (gender-related); G7 2024-259 “We will leverage the benefits of AI for SDGs by closing gaps in technologies for development, and by strengthening research and development ecosystems” (AI) (development-related); and G7 2024-260 “To this end, G7 countries seek to promote safe, secure and inclusive practices, tools and solutions to make the benefits of AI and advanced computing available to partners to advance their development” (AI) (development-related).

↩ [5] Although all G7 members together complied with the 7,223 G7 commitments before 2024 at an average of 77%, among the eight members Italy came last at only 64%. With the G7 leaders’ development commitments before those made in 2024, all members’ compliance averaged 75%, while Italy’s was only 63%.

↩ [6] The G20 is a group to which all G7 members belong. Almost all of the current G7 leaders attended its New Delhi Summit. The G20’s interim compliance of 81% is with the nine priority ones assessed.

↩ [7] This was in their main communiqué. The G20 was mentioned in three commitments.

↩ [8] Specifically, in six commitments on food and agriculture, four on infrastructure, three on health, three on trade and investment, and two each on climate change, energy, development, education and gender equality.

↩ [9] There were only five highly binding and, in this sense, ambitious ones. Of these three were on support for Ukraine and two on international corporate tax cooperation.

↩ [10] The G20 was explicitly noted in eight, with all offering G7 support for the G20.

↩ [11] Tax had seven, and macroeconomic policy and international financial institutional reform also had two each. The nine regional security commitments were listed early in the statement, showing some diversionary crowd-out for development due to the conflict shocks in Ukraine and the Middle East.

↩ [12] The 16 development commitments noted climate change and the energy transition only once. Only one of the climate commitments noted Africa. In development and digital-AI, none in either category referenced the other one. Between digital-AI and climate change, there was also only one link, coming in the last commitment, on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) World Forum on Wellbeing, to be hosted by Italy in Rome on November 4–6, 2024. It read: “We look forward to the seventh edition of the OECD World Forum on Wellbeing, which will be hosted by Italy in Rome on 4-6 November 2024. Building on the legacy of the Japanese Presidency, the Forum will explore the adoption of the policies fostering wellbeing, sustainability, and the reduction of inequalities. The Forum promotes an evidence-based and date-driven analysis of policy issues related to wellbeing and, in line with the G7 priorities of the Finance Track, it focuses on the impact on wellbeing of climate change and AI.”

↩ [13] Canada’s current prime minister, Justin Trudeau, has only a minority government, no coalition partner, very low public opinion support and must have a general election by October next year. Similarly low domestic political control exists in Japan and Germany.

↩ [14] This is well above Italy’s last place average of 63%.

↩ [15] Its predecessors came from Liberal prime minister Pierre Trudeau who, at Montebello in 1981, convinced a reluctant new US president Ronald Reagan to go to Cancun to engage in global negotiations for a New International Economic Order with a newly commodity empowered Global South. Then Progressive Conservative prime minister Brian Mulroney at Venice in 1987 and then at Toronto in 1988 to convince his strongly opposed fellow leaders, led by Margaret Thatcher, to act against South African apartheid, which they did to help end it by 1994, when Nelson Mandella was elected at the first president of a genuinely multiracial state.

↩ [16] Another great step forward for Africa came in 2010, in bipartisan fashion, when Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper, in office for only two years and with a minority government, hosted the Muskoka Summit in June. With no previously known interest in development, Africa, gender equality or health, he chose as his signature initiative putting back on track the Millenium Development Goals (MDGs) on maternal, newborn and child health, which were the furthest behind from being met by their due date in five years. Despite getting all G20 leaders to agree to fiscal consolidation at the G20 summit he hosted in nearby Toronto the next day, at Muskoka he got all G7 leaders to raise $7 billion on the spot for these two MDGs. Then he took the initiative to the United Nations in September, where he raised the total to $40 billion. With a longstanding interest in compliance, he simultaneously created an accountability commission, which he co-chaired with an Africa leader, to ensure the promised money was delivered, which indeed it was. This choice and success were primarily driven by civil society, led by the international non-governmental organization Save the Children.

↩ [17] On September 26–27, 2017, at Turin. Italy at Apulia in 2024 added 25 commitments on AI. Three were related to development: G7 2024-258 “We will also work, including with developing countries and emerging economies, towards closing digital divides, including the gender digital divide, and achieving digital inclusion” (development-related); G7 2024-259: “We will leverage the benefits of AI for SDGs by closing gaps in technologies for development, and by strengthening research and development ecosystems” (development-related); and G7 2024-260 “To this end, G7 countries seek to promote safe, secure and inclusive practices, tools and solutions to make the benefits of AI and advanced computing available to partners to advance their development” (development-related).

↩ [18] So, Africa stands out, just as it did when Canada’s Liberal government hosted at Kananaskis in 2002.

↩ [19] Food and agriculture, labour and Ukraine have one each.

↩ [20] Three appeared recently: “building stable economies,” “fighting climate change,” and “managing rapidly evolving technologies.”

↩ [21] The Pescara development ministers approvingly endorsed the G20 several times in their communiqué.

↩ [22] This is not primarily because the summit will be held in oil-rich Alberta, as it is dominated by dirty oil and gas, and its premier has constrained the development of power from the sun and wind that her province has in abundance.

↩ [23] The economy, from the present, comes fourth, in an inclusive and stable way. Then, from the past come the natural environment, health, gender, food and agriculture, labour and Ukraine.

↩ [24] This is especially so if Kamala Harris attends as US president. Given Canada’s traditional G7 leadership and Trudeau’s domestic priority in gender equality, even if he is not at Kananaskis, Emmanuel Macron, a fellow francophone, the other leader now equally committed to gender equality will lead the cause. G7 members’ compliance with the 26 assessed gender equality commitments since 2014 averages 71%. It is led by Canada at 87%, followed in turn by the United Kingdom at 89%, Germany 73%, the European Union 73%, France 71%, Japan 68%, the United States 66% and Italy 46%.

↩ [25] From Pescara, climate change and gender equality will be boosted, but energy and digital technology will not. From Apulia, climate action through cleaner energy, digital technology and gender equality will. From Washington, climate change and Africa will, but digital technology and AI, energy and gender equality will not.

↩ [26] In 2018, Prime Minister Trudeau held very few ministerials, all clustered, with development ministers meeting their finance colleagues in Whistler, British Columbia, just before the Charlevoix Summit, ministers for climate, energy and environment (and fisheries) meeting in Halifax, Nova Scotia, on the other side of the country, well after the summit had been held. The obvious tight links between development and climate change, energy and the environment were lost. They cannot afford to be lost again next year.

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Appendix A: G7 Summit Performance, 1975–2024 ↩

Updated: Brittaney Warren, October 14, 2023; John Kirton, June 17, 2024.

Notes: n/a = not available.

Grade: Kirton scale is A+ Extremely Strong, Striking, Standout, Historic; A Very Strong; A− Strong; B+ Significant; B Substantial; B− Solid; C Small; D Very Small; F Failure (including made things worse).

Domestic political management: # communiqué compliments = the number of favourable references to G7/G8 members by name. Spread = number of G7/G8 members complimented.

Deliberation: # days = the duration of the summit; # statements = number of official statements issued in the leaders’ name; # words = number of words contained in the official statements.

Direction setting: # affirmations of G7/G8 core values of open democracy, individual liberty and human rights contained in official documents.

Decision making: # commitments contained in the official documents.

Delivery: Compliance: compliance with selected commitments assessed as follows: 1975–1989 assessed elsewhere by George von Furstenberg and Joseph Daniels; 1990–1995 assessed elsewhere by Ella Kokotsis; 1996– assessed by the G7 Research Group. # commitments: number of commitments assessed.

Development of global governance: # ministerials created = number of institutions at the ministerial level created; # official-level groups created = number of institutions at the officials-level created. Institutions created at or by the summit, or during the hosting year, at least in the form of having one meeting take place.

Participation: # members = number of leaders of full members, including those representing the European Community from the start; Russia started as a participant in 1991 and became a full member in 1998 until its last participation in 2013; the G4 met in 1974 without Japan and Italy and later that year the G6 (without Canada) met. # participating countries = number of full members plus number of leaders from other countries. # participating international organizations = number of heads of international organizations.

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Appendix B: G7 Apulia Summit Communiqué Commitments ↩

Updated: John Kirton, October 14, 2024.

[a] Regional security = 65 consists of Ukraine = 43; Gaza = 8; China-Taiwan = 4; Haiti = 2; Iran = 2; North Korea = 2; Indo-Pacific = 1; Libya = 1; general sanctions = 1.↩

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Appendix C: G7/8 Africa Commitments ↩

Note: Includes only explicit references to the continent of Africa. Excludes commitments that referenced specific African countries, with the exception of 2019 Biarritz’s three stand-alone documents on Africa (Biarritz Declaration for a G7 and Africa Partnership, Annex I: Promoting Women’s Entrepreneurship in Africa, Annex II: Digital Transformation in Africa).

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Appendix D: G7 Development Ministers’ Meeting 2024 ↩

Note: Compiled by Brittaney Warren, October 25, 2024.

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Appendix E: Justin Trudeau’s G20 Rio Summit Priorities ↩

From Justin Trudeau, “Canada at the G20: Choosing Progress,” in G20 Brazil: The 2024 Rio Summit, edited by John Kirton and Madeline Koch (London: GT Media), 2024, p. 10.

“At this year’s summit, Canada will work to strengthen democracy, take climate action, defend global security, and make progress on the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.”

1. Democracy
“While countries like Canada are choosing democracy and progress, others are becoming increasingly autocratic, fracturing peace, stability and the rules-based international order.”

2. Climate Change and Clean Energy
“That is why our shared work must start with progress to protect our planet and transition to clean energy. Taking bold climate action will cut emissions, create well-paying jobs and put us back on track to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.”

3. Sustainable Development Goals
“Back on track to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals” … “addressing inequalities and achieving sustainable development.”

4. Gender Equality
Women and girls and Indigenous peoples … “Canada’s work also extends gender equality, bolstered by the G20 Alliance for the Empowerment and Progression of Women’s Economic Representation as well as the Women 20 and other civil society engagement groups. With the new empowered G20 Empowerment of Women Working Group, convened for the first time this year, Canada will maintain the momentum of gender equality.”

5. Digital Technology
“Importance must also be given to new technologies, such as artificial intelligence … we need to close digital divides, improve digital literacy, increase awareness about misinformation ad disinformation, and write the rules for AI together, so that it works for us and not against us.”

6. Security
“Putting an end to wars and conflicts and the immense suffering and devastation faced by affected populations – whether in Ukraine, the Middle East, Haiti or Africa or elsewhere – is imperative for building a thriving global economy.”

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Appendix F: Compliance Corrections for G7 Summit Commitments ↩

Note: Compliance catalysts are elements embedded in commitment text that correlate with higher compliance.

Sources: Articles by Sonja Dobson, Brittaney Warren, Ella Kokotsis, Hiromitsu Higashi and Julia Kulik in G7 Italy: The 2024 Apulia Summit, edited by John Kirton and Madeline Koch (London: GT Media, 2024).

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